Do or Die for Hil

Well, Congratulations to John McCain for essentially securing himself as the Republican candidate for the 2008 elections. Isn't that just so exciting? ... Hmm not really.

What's exciting is the neck and neck battle we are observing between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama! Both have made impressive showings in the primaries with Obama edging out Clinton 1,365 to 1,268, respectively. It all depends on Texas and Ohio. Texas, a notoriously republican, gun loving, George Bush yielding state, is a key player in the Democratic primary election. This election is shaping up to be highly interesting and it's only the primaries :-D .

Texas will distribute 127 delegates, proportionally, to Obama and Clinton on March 4th. Ohio has 49 to be alloted to the candidates. Because the Democrats have a proportional system, even if Hillary wins half the delegates in both states, she will still be behind. Mrs. Clinton needs to have a phenomenal showing in both Texas and Ohio to keep herself in reasonable position with Obama. Texas and Ohio are truly her last hope. If she does not win, according to an article in the Boston Globe entitled Clinton's Adviser says Texas-Ohio Loss could end run, she may be advised to drop out and end her campaign.

Obama has truly proven himself in the eyes of the public. At the start of the primaries Clinton was heavily favored over Obama, who the public saw as "lacking experience". He has run a highly commendable campaign, breaking race, class, and age barrier's all over the country. This will make him a fierce competitor against McCain, should he win the Democratic nomination. The people will then have to decide if they would like to see some change or see George Bush #2 sitting in the oval office for the next four years.

Anyway, March 4th looks to be a very important day, keep your eyes open for the outcome of the Ohio and Texas primaries!!

-Jess

Why polls aren't reliable

Okay so you're sitting down for dinner with your family, its about 5:30 and the phone rings. Of course its not a family member or a friend, or someone you actually care about talking to. Now, plenty of people, including myself, care about the upcoming election and have decided who they plan on voting for but, honestly, if you are calling me during dinner I'm going to do my best to rush you off the phone. Phone polls are right up there with telemarketers in my opinion. Yes I care about the election, yes I plan on voting, but do I care enough to explain my reasoning to a complete stranger at an inconvinient time? Absolutely not.

I think the focus on the importance of polls during elections is too excessive. I'm sure they are accurate to a certain extent but, can we really trust that the outcome with mimic what the polls are saying? First of all, plenty of people "promise" they will vote. Especially young people, the 18-30 group is where they put us, I believe. The young vote is higher than ever, as shown in the primaries, which is awesome. However, young voters are much more eager to participate in a poll with their strong political opinions than to actually get out there and vote when it matters. Secondly, as I just mentioned, things such as phone polls are unreliable in results. I don't think the outcome of these polls is completely askew, but I just don't agree that they should be taken too seriously. The only thing that matters are the elections, the campaign tactics carefully executed by the candidates will, hopefully, effect swing voters and the most crucial thing is getting those people to the voting booths. On that day, none of these polls will matter anymore, and just because one candidate had a good poll standing in February, does not mean they will be the next president in November.

In the article, Obama Narrowly Leads McCain in AP Poll, which I found at http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080211/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_race_ap_poll, discusses the lead that Obama has over McCain and Clinton -- who are tied, for the next president. I was reading along happily, because I am an Obama fan, and was stopped dead in my tracks by this line.

"The survey was conducted from Feb. 7-10 and involved telephone interviews with 1,029 adults."

The dreaded telephone interviews. My 17 year old brother probably answered the phone at my house and told them something to shut them up, and I can guarantee he knows nothing about politics. Obama is also a big fan amongst young voters, and, as I previously mentioned, young people often promise to vote and are nowhere to be found on election day.

As much as I would love to believe Obama is the next president, I am not going to be convinced by a telephone poll. Yuck.

Til Next time..
Jess :)

Super Tuesday!

And the three front runners are...

Okay, I would hope that even those who are not interested in politics are aware of the importance of February 5th to an election year. If not, it is the day in which 24 states hold the primaries and caucus' in which its citizens decide which candidates they wish to represent both the Republican and Democratic parties in the race for the presidency.

Upon the aftermath of this years "super Tuesday" there are three frontrunners. Senator McCain for the Republican party, and, ah, both Senators Obama and Clinton are still "in" the Democratic race in a big way. Sure, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have had a decent showing over the course of the primaries. Honestly though, a baptist minister or a Mormon? Both are favorites amongst conservatives but, believe it or not, conservatives don't have the ability to control everything. While McCain has pulled way ahead, he is shaking in his boots at the thought of losing the conservative vote and is, apparantly, throwing his efforts to convincing him he is "one of them". Oh boy.

On a side note, Senator McCain came to my school this Sunday. Sacred Heart University in Fairfield Connecticut, woooweee. Despite the fact that I have no intentions on voting for him I decided to check it out. As a result of the poor planning by my school, I couldn't hear anything so I left, I would've rather hung out with the protestors outside my school parading around a sign-- "Not another war" complete with a massive makeshift missle being ridden by the one and only George Bush holding a gun. Hilarious.

Anyway, Obama made up for a lot of lost ground on Tuesday, as many people were sure Clinton would be a sure thing after the 24 primaries. Clinton does have more projected delegates but Obama has certainly proved himself. Only time will tell who will come out on top, but it sure makes for an interesting primary race!

-Jess